7/30/2023 0 Comments Cape coral recent rainfall totalsGlass IS (2018) The Royal Observatory rainfall records. George J, Athira P (2020) Long-term changes in climatic variables over the Bharathapuzha river basin, Kerala, India. įavre A, Hewitson B, Lennard C, Cerezo-Mota R, Tadross M (2013) Cut-off lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to precipitation. įahad AA, Burls NJ, Strasberg Z (2020) How will southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones respond to global warming? Mechanisms and seasonality in CMIP5 and CMIP6 model projections. Įngelbrecht FA, McGregor JL, Engelbrecht CJ (2009) Dynamics of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model projected climate-change signal over southern Africa. ĭyson LL (2009) Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province. ĭurre I, Menne MJ, Gleason BE, Houston TG, Vose RS (2010) Comprehensive automated quality assurance of daily surface observations. ĭunning CM, Black EC, Allan RP (2018) Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. ĭu Plessis JA, Schloms B (2017) An investigation into the evidence of seasonal rainfall pattern shifts in the Western Cape, South Africa. ĭieppois B, Pohl B, Rouault M, New M, Lawler D, Keenlyside N (2016) Interannual to interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections. ĭe Kock WM, Blamey RC, Reason CJC (2021) Large summer rainfall events and their importance in mitigating droughts over the South Western Cape. Ĭhavaillaz Y, Codron F, Kageyama M (2013) Southern westerlies in LGM and future (RCP 4.5) climates. īurls NJ, Blamey RC, Cash BA, Swenson ET, Fahad M, Bopape MJM, Straus DM, Reason CJ (2019) The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion. īotai CM, Botai JO, de Wit JP, Ncongwane KP, Adeola AM (2017) Drought characteristics over the Western Cape province. īooysen MJ, Rpunda C, Visser M (2019) Results from a water-saving maintenance campaign at Cape Town schools in the run-up to Day Zero. īlamey R, Reason CJC (2007) Relationships between Antarctic sea-ice and South African winter rainfall. īlamey RC, Ramos AM, Trigo RM, Tomé R, Reason CJC (2018) The influence of atmospheric rivers over the South Atlantic on winter rainfall in South Africa. World Meteorological Organization Technical Document 1186:53īeaulieu C, Chen J, Sarmiento JL (2012) Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations. Correspondence between our results and projected rainfall seasonality trends suggests the trends we quantified will likely continue thus, improvements and continuation of existing water conservation and management strategies are imperative for Cape Town.Īguilar E, Auer I, Brunet M, Peterson TC, Wieringa J (2003) Guidance on metadata and homogenization. Results demonstrate that these drying trends were consistently driven by a long-term decline in rain day counts and a more recent decline in average rainfall per rain day. Comparative analyses of the first and last 59 years of 1841–2020 reveal a rainfall decline of almost 10% across both seasons-highlighting that the extreme “Day Zero” drought was not only driven by wet-season rainfall declines. Long-term drying trends are quantified for the wet and dry seasons however, analysis of trend evolution reveals much variability, reflecting that drying has only persisted since ~ 1892. Consistent with recorded poleward migrations of the subtropical high-pressure belt and mid-latitude westerlies, known drivers behind the drought and drying trends, calculated trends demonstrate strengthening of WRZ conditions, primarily from a later start-date trend leading to a shorter wet-season. Thus, we use the longest WRZ meteorological record from the South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO) in Cape Town to investigate rainfall seasonality shifts during 1841–2020. To improve our understanding of these WRZ drying trends, especially within the context of Cape Town’s 2015–2017 “Day Zero” drought, it is necessary to explore long-term rainfall seasonality trends. However, limited evidence exists for changes in the region’s rainfall seasonality. Mounting evidence across South Africa’s southwestern winter rainfall zone (WRZ) reflects consistent drying since ~ 1980, and projected trends suggest this will continue.
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